Gustavo Machado

Bio

I am an infectious disease modeler with expertise in food animal production epidemiology and the development of novel disease control strategies at multiple scales to reduce the burden of endemic and emerging diseases. I have worked on several aspects of disease modeling approaches, including the development of mathematical models fitted to actual population, animal, and vehicle movement data, and modeling the epidemiology and disease spread dynamics of several animal diseases, including African swine fever, foot-and-mouth disease, porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus, and porcine epidemic diarrhea virus. Additionally, I have experience in the regulatory aspects of disease control work both nationally and internationally, including in Brazil. In my current position at NC State University, I teach courses on the epidemiology of infectious diseases. My research laboratory specializes in mathematical models of livestock diseases and develops novel strategies for their control and elimination. We engage with and provide training for government and industry stakeholders and academics, both nationally and internationally.

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Area(s) of Expertise

Transboundary disease epidemiology

Publications

• Analyzing the intrastate and interstate swine movement network in the United States , (2024)
• Analyzing the intrastate and interstate swine movement network in the United States , PREVENTIVE VETERINARY MEDICINE (2024)
• Description of swine producer biosecurity planning for foreign animal disease preparedness using the Secure Pork Supply framework , FRONTIERS IN VETERINARY SCIENCE (2024)
• Estimating sampling and laboratory capacity for a simulated African swine fever outbreak in the United States , (2024)
• Modeling the effects of vaccination against multiple strains of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome at the barn level , (2024)
• Modeling the impact of optimized airflow and sick pen management on the spread of infectious diseases in swine barns , (2024)
• Modeling the transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus within commercial swine barns: Quantifying the contribution of multiple transmission pathways , (2024)
• The role of vehicle movement in swine disease dissemination: Novel method accounting for pathogen stability and vehicle cleaning effectiveness uncertainties , PREVENTIVE VETERINARY MEDICINE (2024)
• Estimating the effectiveness of control actions on African swine fever transmission in commercial swine populations in the United States , PREVENTIVE VETERINARY MEDICINE (2023)
• Quantifying Spillover Risk with an Integrated Bat-Rabies Dynamic Modeling Framework , TRANSBOUNDARY AND EMERGING DISEASES (2023)

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